In business, having a target to aim for is always considered best practice. However, Lotus may be overly optimistic in targeting 150,000 annual sales by 2028. Prior to 2024, Lotus’s best year was 2005 when it sold 5,530 units worldwide. Since then, annual sales have sharply declined, followed by periods of miserable and egregious growth. Over the past decade, Lotus’s annual sales have never exceeded 2,000 units, dwindling to just 641 annual sales in 2022 as Lotus transitioned to a new era under its new owner, Geely.

Hallelujah, praise the Lord, the other day Lotus announces record sales—the best ever in its history, with over 6,970 units sold worldwide in 2023. The Eletre EV constituted 63% of all deliveries, and Lotus expects to sell over 26,000 units in 2024. However, the stunning success of Lotus’s new model range, attributable solely to Chinese vision and investment, is tinged with bitter reality: Lotus incurred a £593 million loss.

This loss is expected, as the parent owner Geely has invested heavily in reorganizing and revitalizing Lotus. However, 2024 is poised to wipe the losses clean and return Lotus to the heavenly scent of profitability for the first time in decades. The company has a Vision80 strategy, the abridged version of which targets 150,000 annual sales by 2028. Realistically, this will not happen.

Consider Porsche as an example. In 2001, Porsche sold over 54,000 units globally and reached 151,000 units by 2012. The Lotus Vision80 strategy is as much about production cadence as it is about meeting targets. That being said, back in 2001, Porsche didn’t have the 2024 production cadence of a modern Chinese automotive facility.

Nevertheless, for Lotus to go from 6,000 units in 2024 to 150,000 units by 2028, even with modern and superior Chinese production capabilities, is mind-boggling to imagine ever coming to fruition. The 150k figure is nothing more than a happy pill to keep investors and the stock markets giddy with delight.

One ought to remember that Lotus is now positioned as a direct rival to Porsche, and is being marketed as an exclusive premium luxury performance brand. A more realistic annual production/sales target is likely around 70-80k units by 2028.

I’m sure that senior executives at Lotus have this target in mind but refrain from stating it explicitly to avoid negatively impacting the current stock market price.