Rivian just took a hit, and it’s a canary in the coal mine for the EV market. The company lowered the midpoint of its 2025 delivery forecast, and shares plunged more than 7% in early trading. Deliveries were up nearly 32%—but the collapse of the $7,500 federal EV leasing tax credit is a hammer blow. This was a crutch the industry leaned on to prop up demand, and now it’s gone.

Rivian’s new forecast—41,500 to 43,500 vehicles—is effectively a downshift, signaling that the EV boom is more fragile than the hype suggests. Buyers rushed to beat the deadline, but the post-credit reality is bleak. Tariffs on imported auto parts pile on even more pressure, raising costs and squeezing already thin margins.

Behind the scenes, carmakers are scrambling, forced to retool supply chains and bring production onshore—a policy legacy of the Trump era. Rivian’s margin expansion, crucial ahead of the R2 SUV rollout next year, now faces serious headwinds.

This isn’t just a company problem; it’s a systemic one: the EV sector, lauded as the future, is vulnerable to politics, tariffs, and market manipulation.

Third-quarter results land on November 4. Expect fireworks. The real question: who survives when subsidies vanish and the market gets real?