BMW has lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, citing slow growth in China and punitive U.S. import tariffs.

On the surface, this looks like a standard corporate update—but dig deeper, and it reflects the structural vulnerabilities of a multinational corporation.

Profits are increasingly at the mercy of international trade conflicts, shifting consumer demand, and political decisions over tariffs, rather than purely market-driven innovation.

BMW also reports that customs duty reimbursements—essentially money owed by governments—will be delayed until 2026, cutting its automotive free cash flow in half.

This illustrates how even a luxury car giant is dependent on state mechanisms and financial timing, despite its claims of “autonomy.”

Yet, the company continues to prioritise shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, reinforcing the familiar logic: maintaining shareholder interests above all else, even as operational realities shift.