Mercedes. Ferrari. McLaren. George Russell, Kimi Antonelli, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc all feature prominently among the favourites for the 2026 British Grand Prix.

But where does Max Verstappen fit into the picture?

History suggests that qualifying is only part of the story. Statistics show that, on average, only around 40% of Formula 1 races are won from pole position. Whoever starts from pole on Sunday therefore cannot assume victory is guaranteed.

What does seem likely is that a Mercedes will claim pole position. Whether it is Russell or Antonelli is simply too close to call, with Mercedes continuing to hold the edge over a single lap.

Ferrari has a car capable of winning races, but it continues to be hampered by an engineering decision that has left its power unit at a slight disadvantage compared with its rivals. Estimates suggest the deficit is around 40–45 horsepower. That may not sound significant, but in Formula 1 such a gap is enormous and can make the difference between fighting for victory and settling for the lower steps of the podium.

Ferrari still has development opportunities available through its power unit allocation, allowing further upgrades to improve performance. The team has already made a modest gain with a revised fuel formulation, but the full benefits of its engineering programme are not expected to arrive for another three or four races.

Verstappen, meanwhile, has what is widely regarded as the benchmark engine on the grid, although reliability remains a question mark. Red Bull’s biggest challenge is balance. The car is unquestionably fast, but its unpredictable handling has made it difficult to extract consistent performance.

The field remains closely matched, but Mercedes appears to hold the advantage over a single lap. That should see Russell and Antonelli lock out the front row in qualifying. Verstappen, together with the Ferraris of Leclerc and Hamilton, look well placed to fight for the second row.

And then there is McLaren.

Predicting where the papaya cars will qualify is far from straightforward. Lando Norris recently suggested that McLaren is around three months behind Mercedes in its development cycle, implying that whenever McLaren introduces an upgrade, Mercedes and its closest rivals have already moved on again.

So, who will win the British Grand Prix?

If I were putting my money on anyone—and there’s not much of it in the bank—it would be Mercedes. The real question is whether it will be Kimi Antonelli or George Russell.

The two have been remarkably evenly matched, although Antonelli appears to hold a slight edge over his more experienced team-mate.

But don’t rule out Max Verstappen. He could yet prove to be the dark horse. Red Bull is beginning to understand the quirks of the RB26, and if Russell and Antonelli become embroiled in a battle for the lead, Verstappen could be perfectly placed to capitalise and steal victory.

In summary, I haven’t got a clue.